My Updated 2025 Market Outlook

You aren't nearly bullish enough...

Before we get started, I wanted to let you know the new episode of my podcast Room to Run is live on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

In this week’s episode we discussed:

• Why the current market setup is similar to November 2023 before the S&P 500 surged 40%

• How you can tell when the bull market has run its course

• My take on Trump’s position on tariffs, Ukraine, and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)

• Preview of next week’s market moving events

Each 10-minute episode can be listened to for FREE on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave a review.

I haven’t been this excited about the markets in a long time.

Some people like to label me a permabull, but that’s really not accurate. Longtime members of our TikStocks Portfolio community know I pay close attention to three main factors when deciding my views on the markets: fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment.

When these factors aren’t aligned in a bullish direction, I’m not bullish. You can go back and read my work from the end of 2021, where I told you it was time to become cautious about the markets. That caution came just before the 2022 bear market started.

Did I sell my entire portfolio and nail the market top? Of course not—nobody does.

But I try to listen to what the market is telling me. Ignoring these key indicators would be counterproductive to my goal of maximizing returns for myself and our over 1,000 member community. Considering my portfolio was up 36% in 2023 and 45% in 2024, I’d say this approach works well.

But right now, the market is clearly telling me it's time to be bullish—and I’m acting accordingly.

The Fundamentals and Technicals Inspire Optimism

We’ve discussed the fundamental reasons to be bullish.

• Strong S&P 500 earnings growth

• Positive US demographic tailwinds

• AI productivity boom

• Baby Boomer spending boom

All of these factors support further upside for US stocks. The technicals also look solid right now, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq firmly in uptrends.

Those two factors alone make me at least cautiously optimistic about the market’s short-term outlook. That’s despite the poor session on Friday, which was the market’s worst day so far in 2025:

In fact, I’ve been using this volatility as an opportunity to add to high-conviction positions on dips (which is what I did with our 1,000 TikStocks Portfolio members on Friday).

But let’s be clear—nothing tells me more we’re heading higher than when I see headlines like the one in the Wall Street Journal last Tuesday:

I know, I know, my reaction to this headline might confuse some of you. Why would I be excited when I see such negativity around stocks? Shouldn’t I want everyone to be optimistic about stocks so they feel good and keep buying? Surely that would help my investments, right?

Wrong.

Sentiment is Key

Here’s the thing—nothing gets me more excited than when the general sentiment is negative, especially when a bull market is as hated as this one. That’s where real opportunities lie. When we have solid fundamentals and technicals, a pessimistic market is exactly what I want.

For instance, with my huge social media following (over half a million), I often conduct “sentiment checks” by posting deliberately provocative content to gauge investor sentiment.

I did exactly this on November 27, 2023, when I posted about the record number of people traveling across the country.

tikstocks

A post shared by @tikstocks

While I saw this as a sign of the economy being resilient, many in the market were still deeply bearish. The prevailing narrative was that the US was on the brink of or already in a recession, and that the market’s rally was driven by a handful of AI stocks.

The backlash to my post was immediate—and angry. The comments accused me of being out of touch with everyday Americans…

…and even suggested that I was being paid by the Biden Administration.

But here’s the important part: despite the S&P 500 being up +20% that year at the time of that post, 95% of the comments were negative about the economy. That told me everything I needed to know. Even though the S&P 500 was up huge for the year, sentiment was still negative.

That call was spot on. The S&P 500 surged from 4,594 to over 6,100 in the next year, a 32% gain—one of the best runs for the stock market EVER.

Now in 2025, the market is in a similar position. Sure, the bull market is about 2.5 years old, but don’t be fooled. Bull markets don’t die from old age. They die when investors grow too optimistic and there’s no one left to buy. Based on sentiment data from the Wall Street Journal and my own experience, investors are still pessimistic - the most since 2023 - which suggests that the bull market likely has a lot further to go.

That means we’re not done yet. And as long as this pessimism persists, I believe we’ll continue to see stock prices climb. I’ll keep adding to my positions, riding this market higher, and staying true to the strategy that has served me—and our community—well.

You Must Stay Disciplined

I know that staying bullish in a time of widespread pessimism can be tough. It’s easy to get caught up in the negative sentiment, especially when everyone around you is fearful.

But that’s exactly why sentiment is such an important part of my strategy. When the market’s feeling down, I see it as an opportunity, not a threat. With the fundamentals and technicals in our favor, it’s the perfect time to stay disciplined, stick to our strategy, and keep adding to high-quality positions. That includes my top stock for 2025, which me and our over 1,000 TikStocks Portfolio members bought last week.

Click here to get three months FREE off your TikStocks Portfolio membership. Sale ends at midnight tonight!

In short, if you’re still feeling doubtful about the market’s future, I get it—but I’m telling you now: you still aren’t bullish enough.

Stay patient, stay focused, and keep investing with the long-term in mind.

Stay safe out there,

Robert