In yesterday's update, we discussed how the market's "current thing" often spooks investors, only to be forgotten within a few weeks.
The "2023 Regional Bank Crisis" falls into that category. The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, along with a few other smaller institutions, led to a panic that spooked investors and caused widespread concern. At the time, the fear was palpable, with many - mostly stock market doomers - forecasting a repeat of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
But as we know now, the doomers were once again wrong and the crisis was contained. The government stepped in, and within a matter of weeks, the panic was over.
This was despite significant deregulation in the regional banking sector five years prior when the Trump Administration 1.0 signed the 2018 Economic Growth Act into law. Despite this deregulation, the regional banking "crisis" was quickly contained, meaning deregulation did not lead to instability in the banking system.
And while Trump 1.0 deregulated the regional banks without leading to financial calamity, I expect Trump 2.0 to deregulate US fintech market in the same fashion.
A Game Changer for Fintech
The Trump Administration’s focus on deregulation could have a far-reaching impact on fintech firms, particularly those working with digital assets. Just as Trump 1.0 gave regional banks the flexibility to thrive by reducing regulatory burdens, Trump 2.0 is expected to roll back regulations that have hindered fintechs from reaching their full potential.
One of the biggest moves I expect from the Trump administration is the dissolution of Biden-era restrictions under Executive Order 14067. This executive order, combined with the formation of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets (PWG), headed by venture capitalist David Sacks, will remove critical barriers for blockchain-integrated fintech firms, notably:
CBDC Prohibition: Trump’s stance against Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) effectively secures the market space for private stablecoin issuers
SEC/CFTC Jurisdiction Clarity: Expected by Q3 2025, this will provide clarity on how the SEC and CFTC divide responsibilities, giving fintechs a clearer path for expansion.
Strategic Digital Asset Stockpile: The potential for a US digital asset stockpile could benefit infrastructure providers
These key regulatory shifts on the horizon could provide a huge boost to the fintech space as a whole. And with Sacks at the head, I expect some preferential treatment for some of his portfolio companies.
And there's one company - who also has an extremely bullish technical picture and over 100% upside - in his portfolio I expect to benefit above all others.