Does your thesis and price target account for Saylor’s constant ATM tapping, continuously diluting shares to buy BTC and pay out dividends for the preferred equities? He’s also many times said MSTR has to trade at around 2-3x mNAV maximum. The strategy seems a bit unreasonable and neglects share price appreciation. What is your take on this and how to account for this when investing in MSTR?
Yes, my thesis accounts for the ongoing dilution from ATM sales. Saylor is intentionally using equity to gain more Bitcoin exposure—turning MSTR into a leveraged BTC vehicle. That comes with risks, but also asymmetric upside if BTC heads to $250K+.
It’s true MSTR tends to trade around 2–3x mNAV, and dilution can pressure that multiple. But if BTC rises fast enough, mNAV expands too—and the long-term upside can still be 3–5x from here, even after dilution.
This isn’t a conservative compounding story—it’s an asymmetric macro bet. If BTC triples, MSTR could still 3–5x, even with dilution. You just have to size it appropriately and accept the volatility that comes with the strategy.
Does your thesis and price target account for Saylor’s constant ATM tapping, continuously diluting shares to buy BTC and pay out dividends for the preferred equities? He’s also many times said MSTR has to trade at around 2-3x mNAV maximum. The strategy seems a bit unreasonable and neglects share price appreciation. What is your take on this and how to account for this when investing in MSTR?
Yes, my thesis accounts for the ongoing dilution from ATM sales. Saylor is intentionally using equity to gain more Bitcoin exposure—turning MSTR into a leveraged BTC vehicle. That comes with risks, but also asymmetric upside if BTC heads to $250K+.
It’s true MSTR tends to trade around 2–3x mNAV, and dilution can pressure that multiple. But if BTC rises fast enough, mNAV expands too—and the long-term upside can still be 3–5x from here, even after dilution.
This isn’t a conservative compounding story—it’s an asymmetric macro bet. If BTC triples, MSTR could still 3–5x, even with dilution. You just have to size it appropriately and accept the volatility that comes with the strategy.