My Top Five Buys Right Now

Let's capitalize on the shift in market sentiment...

I’ve watched plenty of rallies come and go since I entered the business as a Merrill Lynch intern in 2010. One pattern always holds: a 20% surge in a few weeks is bullish for the next few years—but in the next few weeks it usually invites choppy digestion.

That’s where we are now. From the April 8 low the S&P 500 has jumped almost 20%—a move we caught with our “crash buys”—and those gains are being extended as sidelined money chases performance.

A month ago a stray tariff headline could knock 3 % off the index; today the same news barely wobbles futures. The catalyst? Washington’s pivot from “controlled demolition” to full‑blown stimulus talk.

So far the “trade deals” announced by the White House are symbolic, but the proposed “Big Beautiful Bill” would add roughly $5 trillion to the CBO’s baseline debt path, lifting federal debt from about $36.8 trillion today to ~$42 trillion by 2034. More deficit spending means more money sloshing through the system—markets like that—and it postpones any hard‑nosed austerity that would crimp growth.

The flip side shows up in bonds: the 10‑year Treasury is still hovering near cycle highs and Japanese yields have popped to multiyear highs, pressuring the yen “carry trade.” Yet even a Moody’s warning on the U.S. outlook and fresh rate spikes failed to derail equities—investor angst has clearly cooled as the administration leans back into “Donald Pump” mode (you can hear more about this on my latest podcast).

Bottom line: uncertainty is lower, liquidity expectations are higher, and that combination is minting new trading setups. In this month's portfolio update I’ll break down where the risk‑reward still looks favorable—and where it doesn’t—so we protect the April gains without stepping in front of the next bout of volatility.

Core Portfolio (SPY, QQQ, etc.)

After an insane April that saw one of the worst three-day stretches in stock market history, the S&P 500 has bounced back at an incredible pace.

In the last 28 trading days, the S&P 500 is up over 19%. That's tied for the 15th best stretch ever for the S&P 500:

And while I was publicly critical of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs - the catalyst for the stock market crash - I also followed my indicators and bought the dip near the crash lows. The actions we took during that tumultuous period is a key reason the TikStocks Portfolio is already back to all-time highs:

Did I make perfect investing decisions during the Liberation Day crash? Of course not. But that's an unrealistic standard for any investors. But clearly, we did a "good enough" job of raising cash before the crash, not panicking during the crash, and deploying much of that cash near the lows.

So where do we go from here?