I’ll keep this simple.
When bearish headlines and bearish setups stop producing bearish results… it’s time to stop being bearish. Over the past three months, we’ve had a non-stop barrage of “reasons” to sell stocks:
Trump’s tariffs and trade war 2.0
The Elon/Trump fallout
Middle East conflict spiraling toward World War 3
A U.S. bombing campaign in Iran
And yet… the S&P 500 is a mere 1.5% from all-time highs.
That’s not bearish behavior. That’s resilience. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who's listened to my latest podcast (listen on Spotify and Apple Podcasts). But this is a surprise to Wall Street. For instance, hedge funds haven't been this short US stocks since the start of 2024...
...while hedge fund managers remain wildly underweight US stocks:
Everyone on Wall Street is waiting for the next bomb to drop—literally and figuratively. But just like they were dead wrong at the start of 2024—max short before the S&P 500 ripped +25%—they’re wrong again now.
Because the next major market narrative won’t be war. It'll be rate cuts, deregulation, and tax cuts, or what I've been calling the "stimulus wave."
And I’ve already found the new “market leader” stocks to ride this disconnect, one of which I'm buying more of today.